In a dramatic development that could push Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) into the most serious crisis in its recent history, the top-level Bosnian tribunal, the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Sud BiH) has sentenced Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik to one year in prison and barred him from holding public office for five years at the end of February.
Dodik, the leader of Bosnia’s Serb Republic (Republika Srpska, RS), a nationalist and pro-Russian politician with a pronounced separatist stance, was indicted in 2023 for signing laws that nullified rulings by the Constitutional Court and decisions of the international peace envoy Christian Schmidt, whose role was established in 1995 to monitor the application of the Dayton peace agreement and to prevent the Balkan nation from sliding back into war.
The High Representative has the authority to impose or annul laws and dismiss officials, including judges and political leaders, but his powers aren’t anymore recognised by the Bosnian Serb political leadership.
One law suspended rulings by Bosnia’s Constitutional Court, while the other halted the publication of the peace envoy’s decrees and laws in the Serb Republic’s official gazette. The RS Gazette’s director, Milos Lukic, was also charged together with Dodik.
The Bosnian state court, after a long and tense trial, sentenced Milorad Dodik to one year in prison on 26 February. The first-instance verdict also imposed a six-year ban on him serving as president of Republika Srpska, and in general to participate in the political life in the Balkan country. His co-accused, Milos Lukic, former acting director of Republika Srpska’s Official Gazette, was acquitted. The prosecution had sought a five-year prison sentence for Dodik and a ten-year ban from political life. The verdict is subject to appeal before becoming final.
Dodik and his legal team were absent from the courtroom during sentencing. Before the ruling, he had nonetheless already declared his intention to defy any conviction and warned of taking radical measures in response. He even raised again the prospect of Republika Srpska separating from Bosnia, further escalating tensions in the politically fragile country. Dodik, sanctioned by the United States and the United Kingdom for his separatist policies in the past, had also dismissed the case against him as a “purely political process”, suggesting he would be “ready to go all the way” if found guilty, without specifying his plans. He as well claimed he would not appeal the first-instance judgement, meaning that it should therefore go into force – without being recognized at least in Republika Srpska.
After being sentenced, Dodik appeared unfazed. In front of thousands of supporters, he dismissed concerns, saying there was no reason to worry despite being found guilty, a reaction that underscored his longstanding refusal to recognise the Court’s authority. Addressing the crowd in Banja Luka, Dodik declared also that Bosnia and Herzegovina no longer existed after the trial, vowing to push forward with his agenda as long as he had public backing.
Dodik also revealed that he had spoken by phone with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, his closest allies together with Vladimir Putin. Dodik also invited Vucic to Banja Luka for discussions on the next steps. Meanwhile, Moscow voiced concern over the verdict, warning that it could have catastrophic consequences for Bosnia and Herzegovina and the wider Balkans.
In an immediate and worrying response to the verdict, the Bosnian Serb Parliament convened in an emergency session after the judgement. After several hours of debate, it approved a set of “resolutions” that could be seen as a direct challenge to the central national institutions.
The RS Assembly accused the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina of carrying out a coup and dismantling the constitutional order of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Furthermore, the Assembly rejected all decisions made by Schmidt and declared all laws and decisions from bodies not defined by the BiH Constitution to be null and void, particularly those from the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council, the Prosecutor’s Office of BiH, the Court of BiH, and the BiH Agency for Investigation and Protection.
The Assembly argued that the BiH Court’s decision, based on Schmidt’s decree, contradicted the BiH Constitution and amounted to the dismantling of the constitutional order. It called for the Republika Srpska Attorney’s Office to file criminal charges against prosecutors and judges involved in implementing the imposed decision for undermining the constitutional order.
The National Assembly also instructed the RS Government to prepare laws banning the operation of institutions not outlined in the BiH Constitution, particularly those of the BiH judicial system, in Republika Srpska.
Soon after, the High Representative Christian Schmidt criticised the leadership of Republika Srpska for attempting to destabilise the country. In a statement, Schmidt’s office called for an immediate halt to actions that threaten the Dayton Peace Agreement and Bosnia and Herzegovina’s constitutional and legal order.
The response of the Bosnian Serb leadership to the Dodik verdict could represent the most serious challenge to the unity of Bosnia and Herzegovina in recent decades. While it remains unclear how far Dodik is willing to go in defying the central institutions, it is crucial that the EU, Western powers, and NATO intensify their monitoring of Bosnia and Herzegovina to prevent an escalation that could prove detrimental for the fragile Balkan country.