The Trump effect

The return of Donald Trump to the White House following the US presidential elections of November 2024 has caused mixed reactions worldwide, including in Middle East and North Africa. Alongside Israel, which is expected to benefit the most from the policies of the new US administration, several Arab leaders have showed enthusiasm, particularly those who have already signed in the Abraham Accords that in 2020 paved the way for the normalisation of ties with Tel Aviv. By riding the normalisation wave, Morocco has obtained in exchange the US recognition of its sovereignty over the Western Sahara, the prism through which Rabat views its international environment and judges the relations with its partners, according to King Mohammed VI.

Considering that the move set a precedent not rejected by the Biden administration and later followed by relevant EU members (including France and Spain, which referred to the 2007 autonomy plan for Western Sahara as the best solution for the contentious issue), a significant boost is expected in bilateral relations between Morocco and the US. The appointment of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State has raised high hopes in Rabat, given his distrust of neighbouring Algeria (upon which in 2022 he called for sanctions to be imposed for its military cooperation with Russia in the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine) and pro-Moroccan views, already remarked during a phone call with his Moroccan counterpart Nasser Bourita.

However, it is on the military domain that further progress is particularly expected. The shipment of 24 AH-64E Apache helicopters (with an option for 12 more) manufactured by Boeing and whose US$4.25 billion sale to Morocco was agreed in 2019 is expected to start really soon. It will make Morocco the second African nation to operate the advanced attack helicopter, after Egypt. At the same time, the US State Department has approved in December 2024 the sale of 30 AIM-120C-8 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) for a deal worth US$88,37 million. The recent arms procurement will deepen defence ties between Morocco and the US, confirming Rabat as the top buyer of American military equipment in Africa.

While these recent purchases from the US seems a byproduct of the ongoing arms race with Algeria that shows no signs of abating, the asymmetric nature of the ongoing conflict with the Polisario Front in the Western Sahara is pushing Morocco to look elsewhere for more unconventional supplies. Reports about the recent delivery of Bayraktar TB-2 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) produced by Baykar Makina confirm the kingdom as a crucial partner in the Maghreb for Turkey’s burgeoning military industrial complex. Agreed in 2021, the sale is expected to pave the way not only to the shipment of next generation Akinci drone; but also, the establishment of a local facility to maintain and, possibly manufacture, drone locally.

Similar reports last year suggested the likelihood of a production facility for military drones in Morocco to be built by the Israeli company BlueBird Aerosystem that would have deepened the defence cooperation between Rabat and Tel Aviv. Regardless of the accuracy of these media reports, they show how tense is the competition in the global drone market, particularly where the opportunities are more promising such as the Maghreb. At the same time, all these rumours are very likely to get Algeria uncomfortable, considering its long-standing rejection of foreign military presence in neighbouring countries. That is what makes the recent MoU between Algeria and the US AFRICOM signed just after Trump’s inauguration particularly surprising and warranting further investigations.