The cost of doing business

The change of administration in the United States back in 2021 helped to defuse tensions in the Middle East and North Africa, moving the region from the open confrontation that characterised several theatres to the age of normalisation. Driven by competitive collaboration, foreign partners have also mended ties, reducing frictions where possible. Conflicting agendas between France and Italy, which rose to the surface during the 2019-2020 conflict in Libya, were promptly dealt with, resulting in a modus vivendi that satisfied both Paris and Rome.

Nonetheless, the changing international landscape is once again fuelling the geopolitical rivalry between the two prominent EU members, whose leaders have set their sights on the Maghreb. It is not by chance then that while French President Emmanuel Macron was in Morocco for an official visit at the end of October, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni travelled to Libya to attend the 30^th Libyan-Italian Business Forum, signing a flurry of deals that includes the construction of the coastal highway between Ras Ajdir and Musaid (practically a segment of the old via Balbia, built in 1935).

However, all eyes were on the aviation industry, where expectations were high after the Italian consortium Aenas had called on Meloni to intercede with Prime Minister of the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) Abdul Hamid Dbeibah for the reconstruction of the Tripoli International Airport (TIP). Presently, the Italian Prime Minister was only able to confirm that the national airline ITA Airways will resume direct flights between Italy and Libya from January next year, a request long made by authorities in Tripoli.

Unfortunately, competition is rather stiff even in difficult situations: due to delays in implementing reconstruction projects (TIP was awarded to Aenas back in 2017) and probably to effective political influence, the new contract was awarded to a consortium of companies from Egypt and Turkey, two powerful and determined regional actors.

On the other hand, France was able to mend ties with Rabat following years of tense relations, signing in 22 agreements, including the expansion of Morocco’s high-speed railways, as well as investments in hydrogen, wind farms and water. Following steps already taken by Spain and the USA, the recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara was for Rabat the precondition for a thaw in bilateral relations and for France an important means to retain a foothold in Africa, with its influence receding elsewhere. In the zero-sum game going on in the sub-region, retaliatory measures from Algeria have been likely factored in by Paris as the cost of doing business with Morocco.

Paris and Rome, divided by regional competition, are paradoxically united in exploiting the last opportunities before the advent of a brisker weather in transatlantic relations with the new administration.