All the roads lead to Nouakchott

The electoral season that will see many countries around the world go to the polls in 2024 will not spare the Maghreb, where a reconfiguration of the regional landscape is currently ongoing. Expected later this year, Algeria announced early presidential elections in September, when the incumbent Abdel Majid Tebboune is expected to gain a second mandate, with the favour of the powerful military that played a pivotal role during the transitional period after the fall of Abdelaziz Bouteflika. No surprises are also expected in neighbouring Tunisia, where President Kais Saied is all but sure to be reconfirmed at the Palais de Carthage for a second five-year term, following a rule where the opposition was either vanquished or imprisoned.

While questions continue to surround the ghostly electoral process in Libya, there is yet another Maghreb country that will head to the ballot boxes in June 2024. Frequently off the radar, but increasingly important in the eyes of regional peers and international partners, Mauritania will have presidential elections in June. Also in this case, President Mohamed Ould Cheikh el-Gazouani is expected to be re-elected, taking into account the strong performance of the ruling el-Insaf party in the general elections last year. The five-year prison sentence for corruption and money-laundering issued last December against his predecessor, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, also put an end to the political power struggle that have been going on in Nouakchott for quite some time.

In a much more comfortable position than before, Gazouani is raising his profile on the continental stage. In February he was elected by the Heads of State of the African Union as Chairperson of the regional organisation. His election as a candidate from North Africa (the regional bloc expected to hold the rotating presidency this year) has been eased by the difficulties of his regional peers. Saied’s attack against sub-Saharan migrants has embarrassed Tunisia, while the Maghreb divide between Algeria and Morocco has widened in recent years, especially after Rabat’s normalisation of diplomatic ties with Israel. As Libya remains engulfed in its frozen conflict and Egypt already had the chairmanship in 2019, Mauritania remained the only choice by exclusion.

In such a fragmented and divisive environment, where the higher volatility in the Maghreb adds to the multidimensional challenges coming from the Sahel, Mauritania looks increasingly central to the foreign policies of its regional partners. Resisting the mounting pressure of its powerful neighbours and steering a neutral course over the competing claims of Algeria and Morocco over the Western Sahara will be paramount, even though the free trade zone project between Tindouf and Ezouirat announced in late February; and more importantly, the eventual inclusion of Mauritania in a new regional bloc announced by Tebboune in late March to overcome the multiple failure of a frozen Union du Maghreb Arabe (UMA) will certainly show its true colours and real inclinations.

In the meanwhile, ongoing trends in the African continent are already increasing the geopolitical salience of Mauritania, as shown by the visit in February of the President of the European Commission Ursula Von der Leyen and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. The €210 million deal to stem the flow of migrants along the Atlantic Route (from Mauritania to the Canary Islands) replicates similar deals made by the EU with transit countries in North Africa (e.g. Egypt and Tunisia). It also shows the rising interests of external actors for a strategic partner at the crossroad between the Maghreb and the Sahel, two regions whose stability has been undermined by recent upheavals, terrorist threats and the expanding influence of strategic competitors.