All the President’s men

Following presidential elections characterised by a low turnout and data discrepancies in Algeria (where unsurprisingly the incumbent Abdelmajid Tebboune won a second term in office under the watchful eye of the powerful military) a similar outcome awaits neighbouring Tunisia, which goes to the polls on the 6^th of October. President Kas Saied is quite sure to be re-elected for a new 5-year mandate, but while in Algeria the political climate was marked by growing apathy and acquiescence from the public opinion, tensions are escalating in Tunisia ahead of the landmark vote.

The protests held in the capital Tunis on the 13^th of September were the culmination of a weeks-long struggle between demonstrators and the authorities. Organised by the recently established Réseau tunisien pour la défense des droits et libertés, the rally called for the release of activists, journalists and opposition figures detained since the introduction of the Decree Law n. 54 (2022) against disinformation and misinformation in Tunisia. Used against dissenter, the decree has now become the symbol of the draconian turn promoted by Saied following the 21^st July 2021 power change.

A new constitution, introduced in 2022, dismantled the checks and balances of post-Arab Spring Tunisia, practically returning the country to a one-man rule. The dissolution of the Supreme Judicial Council went along the seizure of the Instance Supérieure Indépendante des Élections (ISIE), which has recently come at odds with the Administrative Court about the elections. In a controversial move, ISIE has indeed rejected the rulings of the judiciary to reinstate three candidates (Abdellatif El-Mekki, Mondher Znaidi and Imed Daimi), overstepping the classic separation of powers towards a hyper-presidential system

For now, only Zouhair Maghzaoui (a leftist pan Arabist who supported Saied’s moves in the early stage and now leads the Mouvement du peuple party) and Ayachi Zammel (a businessman heading Azimoun) have been allowed to run by Farouk Bouasker, head of ISIE appointed by the President himself in 2022. Nevertheless, the arrest of Zammel (recently sentenced to a 20-month prison term for forging signatures for his campaign) raises doubts about the integrity and fairness of the electoral process.

The deterioration of the political climate has been noted by the European Union (EU), whose European External Action Service expects Saied to remain in power after the elections, according to a leaked memo. The outcome would likely please officials in Brussels, especially when considering the role played by Tunis in the externalisation policy of the EU. Raising the issue of human rights, would likely mean jeopardising the €1,1 billion migration deal signed in 2023, pushing Tunisia to look out for other partnerships elsewhere.

With no easy options to extricate the country from an uncertain political transition and a clear economic crisis, rumours are reported about a growing discontent within the military. Leaving aside the significance of the signal, one should remember that the passive neutrality of the army was pivotal in the fall of the regime of former President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali in 2011. This time, however, such acquiescence might not be enough in tilting the balance of power in favour of an increasingly repressed opposition.