KSA and the top brass reshuffle

The reshuffle of the top military brass in Saudi Arabia at the end of August surprised many observers looking for hints about the stability of the pivotal kingdom shaken up ever since the rise of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz (also known as MbS). The recommendations of his brother and Minister of Defence Prince Khalid bin Salman bin Abdulaziz were key in the sudden demise of the: Commander of the Joint Forces, Lt.-Gen. Mutlaq bin Salman bin Mutlaq al-Azima; Chief of Staff of the Naval Forces, Lt.-Gen. Fahd bin Abdullah bin Saleh al-Ghufaili; and the Chief of Staff of the Land Forces, Lt.-Gen. Fahd bin Abdullah bin Mohammed al-Mutair.

The modernisation of the Saudi military, bogged down in the civil war in Yemen since the 2015 intervention, has been a key goal of the Crown Prince (and PM) MbS. In a region where the war in Gaza has escalated tensions between Iran and Israel and asymmetric threats continue to pose a concrete danger to the security of Saudi Arabia (and to its infrastructure, critical for global oil supplies), the optimisation of the performance of the Saudi army might have also been the primary drivers behind the reorganisation of the military leadership. Especially when considering the role of the Joint Forces Command, specifically tasked with the operation in Yemen.

The Saudi-led coalition against the Iranian-sponsored Houthis, responsible for the Red Sea crisis and resulting disruption of global trade, will be now led by Lt.-Gen. Fahd bin Hamad bin Abdulaziz al-Salman. The royal decrees also ordered the appointment of Lt.-Gen. Fahd bin Saud bin Dhuwaihir al-Juhni as Chief of Staff of the Land Forces and the promotion to Lt.-Gen. of Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Hamed al-Gharibi to lead the Naval Forces, but the likelihood of Riyadh doubling down on his strategy in the Yemen quagmire are slim. The circumstances suggest instead moderation and an accommodation with the Houthis, as seen with Riyadh’s reluctance to join the Operation Prosperity Guardian.

Much more intriguing are the rumours about normalisation of diplomatic ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, still pursued by the outgoing Biden administration despite having possibly been among the key drivers of the escalation in the Middle East. Press reports have suggested MbS’s fears for his own life over the deal, making him the target of an assassination attempt similar to the killing of former Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981. Despite the same reports suggesting MbS’ clear intention to extract further concessions from Israel and the USA for a roadmap towards the establishment of a Palestinian State, the stakes for such a transformative deal could have not been higher.

Especially for the Crown Prince, not at all at ease in facing growing domestic opposition over his foreign policy in such sensitive times, just ahead of highly consequential elections in the USA. Diplomatic circles are already scrutinising his moves, between openings to systemic competitors of the West abroad and fears of an incoming crackdown at home. The precedent of 2018, when a previous shake-up of the military leadership occurred on the backdrop of the famous anti-corruption drive that culminated in the detention of royal members at the Ritz-Carlton hotel, offers an interesting parallel, even though the streets and not the barracks seem the main source of his concern for now.