Iranian Naval Forces East-of-Hormuz strategy

Source: DIA, Iran Military Power 2019, and own elaboration.

The regular armed forces (Artesh) are traditionally focused on the Caspian Sea and the Indian Ocean, while the IRGC is responsible for operations in the Gulf: but in the case of the critical Hormuz Strait, both are in charge. The Iranian Navy is now strengthening its naval positioning: it has just restructured two naval headquarters at Bandar-e Abbas, announcing the fast development of the bases in Bandar-e Jask and Chabahar, both at the east end of the Hormuz strait.

The Iranian “beyond Hormuz” strategy has also an energy component. As announced by President Hassan Rouhani in June 2020, Tehran plans to build a 1.000 km oil pipeline linking Bushehr to Bandar-e Jask by March 2021. Currently, about 90% of Iran’s oil export passes through the Hormuz Strait via Bushehr. Circumventing Hormuz is a way to make the evergreen threat of a Strait closure or interdiction by Tehran more consistent [Nicholas Carl, “The growing Iranian threat around the Strait of Hormuz”, The Critical Threats Project-AEI, September 22, 2020], since this would harm less Tehran (but not Iraq) than it would be today. However, the projection towards the Indian Ocean mirrors the reality of Iran’s growing connection with Asian markets, and the expanding comprehensive partnership with China.

Before the Iranian choice, the “beyond Hormuz” strategy was already a visible trend in the region, as previously shown by the neighbouring United Arab Emirates (port and energy investments in the Emirate of Fujairah) and Saudi Arabia (with a military presence in Yemen’s Mahra governorate since 2017 and an ongoing project to rehabilitate the port of Nishtun, started in 2019). The rising appeal of Oman’s port facilities also confirms this strategic direction.

But the Gulf powers’ out-of-bottleneck strategy has a hidden risk: bringing the geopolitical and asymmetric battle directly into the Western Indian Ocean, thus forcing Asian giants to assume greater responsibilities, or even to take sides between contenders.