Two steps closer to the brink

The assassination of senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Teheran at the end of July have sent shockwaves across the Middle East, in a region feeling the risk of an escalation since nine months

One close call happened last April, when the bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus was met with a calculated response from Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), launching drones and missiles towards Israel after giving notice to neighbouring countries well in advance.

The retaliation of Israel, with missile strikes against several Iranian military sites (including one close to the nuclear facility in Isfahan) had seemingly turned the page on a very dangerous tit-for-tat. Then came the unguided rocket attack against the Druze town of Majdal Shams (in the Golan Heights occupied by Israel since 1967), killing 12 children in a football pitch. The incident was blamed on Hezbollah, a Shia militia that has been part of the Iran-affiliated network since its inception and has resumed strikes against Tel Aviv ever since the 7^th of October attack carried out by Hamas. Apparently a Falaq-1 (Dawn) Iranian-produced rocket had missed its intended target, but no conclusive evidence was produced on the weapon or the militia responsible.

Dismantling the so-called axis of resistance has long been a priority for the Israeli government. After his successful visit to Washington, where he was acclaimed by the US Congress and witnessed firsthand how the chances of incumbent President Joe Biden to be re-elected crumbled, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may sense the opportunity outwait hostilities until the next US presidential election. Possibly a sympathetic Trump presidency could provide further support to the Likud-led coalition, resuming the maximum pressure strategy against Iran, then endorsed by major Gulf powers.

These developments rule out, for the time being, any compromise over the temporary truce and the return of the surviving Israeli hostages, to which the past Hannibal Protocol may have been applied (a military “better dead than prisoner” policy). Obviously, the concrete risk of a conflagration overshadows also the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

The killing of Haniyeh will presumably harden the stance of the newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian, in addition of having revealed a serious Iranian security flaw. Recently sworn in after his election following the death of his predecessor Ibrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, the reformist candidate was considered the best chance to defuse regional tensions.

The latest incidents will probably drive the Iranian foreign policy towards a retaliation that is likely to involve its regional proxies, including affiliated militias in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. This mechanism could bring to a great regional war, that could be impossible to prevent by international diplomacy.