The multi-faceted implications of the trilateral meeting in Ferghana Valley

The new year has begun with a significant step in the process of regional cooperation in Central Asia: as a matter of fact, the Prime Ministers of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan were involved in trilateral meeting in the Ferghana Valley, paving the way for a potential definitive stabilisation of this sensitive area, key precondition to promote trade cooperation, connectivity corridors and renewable energy projects. This trilateral meeting is the result of the improved atmosphere of cooperation in Central Asia, also based on the successful achievement of the border demarcation among these countries which has contributed to increase reciprocal reliability and political dialogue.

Since 1991, unmarked areas of the borders in the Ferghana Valley (a transnational area spanning Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan), were often the scenes of conflicts between communities: the hard competition over scarce water and land resources in an overpopulated area has frequently triggered tensions and clashes among different ethnic groups.

Furthermore, Ferghana Valley has been the traditional hotbed of Islamic radicalism in Central Asia, where the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) (one of the most dangerous radical groups in the region) moved its first steps, undertaking armed and destabilizing incursions in the neighbouring countries. Security concerns represented the main reasons that pushed authorities to frequently close the borders.

Further complicating the situation, the existence of eight exclaves represents another heritage of the Soviet times, imposing the need to define their legal status in these independent states: this appears particularly urgent for Sokh (Uzbekistan within Kyrgyzstan), Vorukh (Tajikistan within Kyrgyzstan), and Shakhimardan (Uzbekistan within Kyrgyzstan) (Enclaves, Exclaves, and Soviet Mapmakers, Times of Central Asia, February 6, 2024).

However, since 2017 Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan started a bilateral dialogue to reach an agreement on the definitive demarcation of the bilateral border which was signed in January 2024, while in December 2024 also Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan agreed on the border demarcation, downgrading a dangerous source of regional conflict because these countries have been engaged in armed clashes over the disputed borders until 2023. It is highly symbolic that the three countries’ prime ministers met at the junction where Kyrgyzstan’s Batken Region, Tajikistan’s Sughd Region, and Uzbekistan’s Fergana Region come together (C. Putz, Kyrgyz, Tajik, Uzbek Prime Ministers Meet at Trilateral Junction, The Diplomat, January 9, 2025).

According to the Kyrgyz government’s statement, this renewed dialogue will allow to strengthen cooperation in key areas as trade, logistic, water energy and cultural-humanitarian ties. (Central Asian leaders look to expand mutual trade, Eurasianet, January 10, 2025). Kyrgyz official position is strongly linked to the recent development about a regional strategic milestone, namely the official launch of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway corridor on January 4, after the achievement of the investment agreement to finance its realisation, mainly regarding the Kyrgyz railway segment.

According to the project, the 486 km long railway link should connect the Chinese city of Kashgar (in the Xinjiang autonomous province, the old Urumqi) with the Uzbek city of Andijan (in the Ferghana Valley) crossing Kyrgyz territory from east to west in the cities of Torugart-Makmal-Jalal-Abad. The CKU railway line is designed to transport 10-12 million tons of goods per year, strengthening regional connectivity between east and west as well as significantly reducing the costs and times of freight transport (Kazinform, Investment agreement signed for China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project, December 21, 2024).

In terms of energy cooperation, the three prime ministers discussed about hydropower plants, which could help these countries to face frequent electricity shortages as well as developing an endogenous-renewable energy source to meet growing domestic consumption. Moreover, a renewed dialogue on the water management will provide security supply for a regional economy mainly based on agriculture (B. Pannier, Heads of Kyrgyz, Tajik, and Uzbek Governments Meet… Finally, Times of Central Asia, January 2025).

The Ferghana Valley meeting has confirmed the concrete engagement of Central Asian states to improve dialogue in order to deal with the existing challenges and to identify common approaches and solutions. This positive spirit of cooperation and trust will lead to the implementation of strategic trade corridors crossing the region within a scenario of political stability which will also attract investments and interests of the external actors in a win-to-win profitable involvement.