Iran-Russia: towards mutual dependence?

A year since the start of the war in Gaza following the attack carried out by Hamas against Israel, there is no end in sight for the ongoing escalation in the Middle East. The spiral of violence between Teheran and Tel Aviv has reached unprecedented heights, moving from a shadow war to an open confrontation that is pushing the region to the brink. Serious consequences have already been felt in the Red Sea, where attacks by the Houthi rebels on ships transiting the strategic waterway from the Bab al-Mandeb Strait to the Suez Canal have not been deterred by Western military presence.

Despite the launch of the US-led Operation Prosperity Guardian, military strikes against Houthi targets in the US-UK combined Operation Poseidon Archer and the presence of the EU Naval Force Aspides, full freedom of navigation has not been restored, forcing several vessels to take a much longer route circumnavigating Africa. The cost of the Red Sea crisis has hit hard European economies, at a time in which the EU is still in the process of weaning off Russian oil and gas after the start of the conflict in Ukraine, besides the costs of military and financial support to Kiev. The diversification of energy supplies has led to a renewed interest in Africa and the Gulf.

For this reason, reports about Russian assistance to the Houthis’ military campaign in the Red Sea were not surprising. According to a recent scoop by the Wall Street Journal, earlier this year Moscow has provided satellite data to the Yemeni rebels for their attacks on Western ships and tankers with drones and missiles. The intelligence was reportedly passed to members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCG), the praetorian guard of Teheran that also cultivates relations with regional proxies and affiliates. Including the Houthis, which have received significant backing from Iran since the start of the civil war in Yemen in 2014.

Disruption by a proxy is perfectly in line with Russia’s hybrid warfare doctrine. In Yemen, it is eased by a strategic partnership with Iran that is resulting in a much more visible military cooperation. Following the supply of HESA Shahed-Martyr 136 (Russian denomination Geran-2, Geranium) loitering munitions already employed in Ukraine, Iran has recently provided Russia with approximately 200 Fath-360 SRBM (Conquest Farsi denomination, Short Range Ballistic Missile), according to US Department of Defense officials. The shipment, which reportedly took place in the Caspian Sea, may facilitate negotiations about the sale of the Russian Sukhoi Su-35 (Flanker E/M) multirole fighter jets to Teheran, repeatedly delayed since the agreement was signed in 2022.

In a mutual dependency in which both Moscow and Teheran seek to reinforce each other, fears of a possible shipment of Russian antiship or antiair missiles to the Houthis have not materialised yet, signalling a cautious approach when navigating the turbulent waters of the Red Sea that may have different explanations. In such a volatile and inflammable environment like the Gulf, Russia is aware of the need to thread the needle, balancing its budding relationship with Teheran and the converging interests with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both parts of the BRICS+ summit in Kazan in October, albeit in a different capacity.