Double-cross diplomacy in the Maghreb

In addition to the deeply destabilising assassinations of Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Teheran and senior Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr in Beirut, France’s untimely diplomatic move re-ignites a long-standing conflict.

France has officially recognised the sovereignty of Morocco over the Western Sahara fuelling a regional rivalry that already pits Algiers against Rabat, already worsened following the Abraham Accords. The inclusion of Morocco in the normalisation front in exchange for the US recognition of Rabat’s sovereignty over the disputed region during the twilight of the Trump administration set already a remarkable precedent, followed by several EU members entangled in the divisive geopolitics of the Maghreb.

Spain is a particular case in point. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s recognition of Morocco’s autonomy plan as the most credible, serious and durable basis for the resolution of the conflict came on the backdrop of tense relations between Madrid and Rabat: the migration flows certainly played a role in Spain’s turnaround over the Western Sahara at that time.

Yet France’s desire to build back its special relation with what is considered a vital partner in North Africa deserves more attention. In the letter sent on the 30^th July to celebrate King Mohammed VI’s 25^th anniversary since his accession to the throne, French President Emmanuel Macron says that for Paris autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty is the framework within which this Western Sahara issue must be resolved.

Already on the defensive in the Sahel and finding it hard to fine-tune relations with its partners in North Africa, Macron’s move shows how France just cannot afford to maintain frosty relations with Morocco. Even if that means getting ready to face the immediate retaliation of Algeria, main sponsor of the Polisario Front that has resumed its fight for the independence of the Sahrawi people. Just as when Spain endorsed the 2007 autonomy plan, the withdrawal of the Algerian ambassador from Paris seemed inevitable.

In the zero-sum game ongoing in the Maghreb, the consequences of France’s decision could be lasting, deepening the divide between rival regional blocs and reviving old fractures among EU member states. Already rather divided over Libya, France and Italy could soon find themselves entangled in the Maghreb quandary, given Rome’s special relation with Algeria and preferential access to its resources; at the same time in Tunisia, the common understanding between Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and President Kais Saied draws the ire of the French press.

In this double-cross diplomatic game from Maghreb to Mashreq, France’s move over the Western Sahara issue follows the new Italian ambassador appointment in Syria after 12 years of civil war. Within a politically orthodox stance and a clear anti-migration policy, Italy intends to exploit opportunities, breaking the EU’s inertia on the region while Iran and Russia have free action. The step follows the opening of the embassies of Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czechia, Greece, Rumania and Hungary, all countries along the migration Balkan route.