Successions

The generational shift is moving at full speed in the Gulf, as the region seems indefinitely oscillating between a cautious rapprochement and a dangerous escalation. Fine-tuning the interests of the royal families (whose branches are often in competition against each other for a place in the sun) is certainly a risky business that has often a huge impact on the balance of power, as well as on the specific polities.

The example of Kuwait is significant, as the appointment of Sheikh Sabah al-Khalid al-Sabah as Crown Prince took place during a period of extreme political turmoil. The decision made by the 84-year old Emir, Sheikh Meshal al-Ahmad al-Sabah, came after the dissolution of the National Assembly and the suspension of some articles of the constitution amid the political gridlock that followed the latest general elections held in April in Kuwait.

The state of emergency imposed by the ruler, which came to power at the end of last year after the death of his half-brother Nawaf al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah, has certainly paved the way for the nomination of the Crown Prince, which would have been subjected to the ratification of the opposition-led parliament. Nevertheless, it’s the suspension of part of the constitution that marks a significant departure from Kuwait’s traditional standards.

As the Emirate enters a transition period of four years and moves closer to the political model adopted by its neighbours, Saudi Arabia’s succession process seems already on stand-by. Concerns about the health conditions of 88-year old King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, who suffered from lung infection in May, forced Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (also known as MbS) to postpone a state visit to Japan, his first since 2019.

Having already consolidated his power in a process that, after the anti-corruption campaign of 2017, culminated in his appointment as Prime Minister in 2022, MbS has been acting as de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia. In this capacity, he has been orchestrating the new foreign policy course of the kingdom, negotiating the diplomatic normalisation with Israel in exchange for specific security guarantees from and a nuclear cooperation with the USA.

At the same time, MbS also inaugurated a détente with Iran that was supposed to finally end more than a decade of proxy wars in the Middle East. The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in a helicopter crash in the East Azerbaijan province of Iran removed from the picture two of the main architects of the rapprochement between Riyadh and Teheran brokered by China.

The accident also reopened the electoral process in the Islamic Republic that, after the recent general elections, will now have polls on the 29^th June to choose a new President. A process overseen by the Guardians Council and, ultimately, by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The 85-years old cleric was supposedly grooming Raisi but now must quickly find another candidate to succeed him, amid significant domestic challenges and fears of regional escalation.