The UN Special Representative of the Secretary General (SRSG) for Libya Abdoulaye Bathily resigned due to the UN’s failure to support Libya’s political transition despite more than a decade of attempts following the civil war and ongoing political breakdown. Bathily mentioned that Libyan political actors are the main responsibles for the situation because they are prioritizing their personal concerns over collective goods. He described them as people driven by anything, but good intentions and these behaviours make UN’s activities useless, leaving no chance of resolving this difficult political situation.
While it remains to be seen if the UN Support Mission in Libya can relaunch the peace process under the interim leadership of Deputy SRSG Stephanie Kouri, the unfinished transition leaves the country vulnerable to foreign interference. Recent reports about the docking of two Russian landing ships in Tobruk in mid-April, highlighted Moscow’s expanding influence in Libya. Both units of the Northern Fleet, the Ivan Gren (homonymous class) and the Ropucha-class Alexander Otrakovsky reportedly moved military equipment from the Russian naval base in Tartus, Syria, where Russia maintains a military presence since 1971.
Plans to establish a naval facility in Tobruk’s deep-water port seem to drive Russia’s increasing interest in Cyrenaica, where the Kremlin has many influential friends. During the latest round of fighting in Libya, the Wagner Group acted as a force multiplier for the Libyan National Army’s failed offensive in Tripoli (2020), which reinforced the closeness between the Kremlin and Gen. Khalifa Haftar. The relationship was initially established in 2017, during the visit onboard the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov. Recently, the Russian Deputy Defence Minister Col.-Gen. Yunus Bek-Yevkurov reaffirmed their closeness during frequent visits to Benghazi.
Together with Gen. Andrei Averyanov (head of the Unit 29155 of the GRU, the special elimination unit of the military intelligence), Yevkurov is overseeing the transformation of the Wagner Group from a private military company into a new entity under the control of the Russian military intelligence. The refashioning will result in the establishment of the Africa Corps (Afrikansky Korpus) and Libya is destined to play a key role as a continental hub for their activities, especially in the Sahel: Libyan airbases have already been part of the Russian air-supply route to Burkina Faso, Mali and Sudan, where Moscow is backing the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces.
Nevertheless, the depth of Russia’s power projection goes well beyond the notorious arc of instability in the Sahel. According to recent reports, Libya is already a gateway to the Central African Republic (CAR), where Moscow has signed a military cooperation agreement and has had access to natural resources, according to a model that is being replicated elsewhere. Alongside the Libyan airbases (such as al-Khadim, used to move Russian contractors to CAR), Russian paramilitary presence has also been reported in several oilfields and terminals, while Russian fuel has been smuggled outside of the North African country.
The ongoing war in Gaza and the escalation between Israel and Iran are obfuscating these movements, part of an ongoing trend that will give Russia a larger footprint along the southern Region of NATO. At the same time the Euro-Atlantic countries seem in retreat, as indicated by the decision of the junta in Niger to end the military presence of US forces. The deployment of Russian forces in the Airbase 101, the same used before by American troops, represents an ominous sign, a symbol of the declining fortune of Western partners in a very crucial region.
